01 · May 2026 - what actually happened
A $156k month, but propped on discounts and full ad spend
May already cleared the $150k bar. The catch: it leaned on a 19% discount load and full Google spend that was cut at month-end. The job now is to hold the number on a healthier base, then scale.
$155,916
Gross revenue (Shopify)
523 orders
$298
Average order value
high - strong basket
19%
Discount load
$36,879 given · 27% of orders used a code
39%
Returning customers
206 of 523 · healthy repeat base
$5,030
Avg revenue / day
15 of 31 days ≥ $5k
1
Days over $10k
24 May ($12.8k, EDM spike)
8.2×
Google Ads ROAS
$10,581 spend → $86,506 revenue (Google Ads)
$0
Meta ad spend
untapped channel
⚠ Late-May effect: after Google budget was cut $300→$100/day (28 May), daily revenue fell to ~$1.4-2.6k. Cutting ads cut sales almost immediately. Revenue reads here are gross Shopify sales before refunds: the number we manage performance to, as agreed.
02 · Where the revenue came from
Revenue by channel
Google Ads is the source of truth for paid: it drove $86,506 in attributed revenue in May. GA4 last-click under-credits paid (it strips Google-acquired sales that return via direct or email), so paid uses Google's own number; the channels below it are GA4 directional. ~$28k lands "Unassigned" in GA4 from missing UTMs + the broken second property (see risks).
| Channel | Revenue | Share | Txns | Read |
|---|
| Google Ads (Shopping/PMax) | $86,506 |
| - | Google Ads actual |
| Unassigned | $28,431 |
| 138 | attribution gap |
| Direct | $24,562 |
| 51 | brand / repeat |
| Email (EDM / Klaviyo) | $17,064 |
| 45 | cheap, high-margin |
| Organic Search | $13,551 |
| 45 | free · SEO upside |
| Organic Shopping | $7,909 |
| 26 | free |
| Organic Social | $2,382 |
| 9 | |
Within Google, Shopping/PMax does all the work - Paid Search drove 108 sessions and $0 revenue. Reallocate that spend to Shopping/PMax.
03 · The plan - channel by channel
June holds $150k · July doubles to $310k
You cannot 2× on Google alone (ROAS decays as spend scales). July's step-change comes from scaling Google, adding Meta retargeting (warm, high-ROAS, today $0), the new site converting all month, and a July promo moment. June builds it; July pours fuel in. The rows below are each channel's own attribution and overlap (a Google-acquired sale also shows as direct/email on return), so they don't sum to the blended target.
| Channel | May actual | June target | July target | How |
|---|
| Google Ads (Shopping/PMax) | $86.5k | $95k | $150k | lift to ~$400/day (June) then ~$950/day (July); ROAS eases 8× → ~5× as spend scales |
| Meta retargeting (NEW) | $0 | $3k | $20k | retargeting ONLY: site visitors, abandoned carts, email/customer audiences. Launches with the new site at $50/day for the first 7 days, then reviewed and stepped up on results. No cold prospecting yet. |
| Email / Klaviyo | $17k | $28k | $48k | flows (welcome, abandon, browse, post-purchase), value not discount |
| Direct / Repeat | $25k | $26k | $46k | trade accounts + 30-day terms, loyalty to the 39% base |
| Organic (SEO) | $21k | $26k | $42k | category/brand tidy-up, vendor tagging, clean titles, GSC fixes |
| Organic social / referral | $3k | $8k | $15k | new-site conversion lift + a July restock/X-Line promo moment |
| Blended target (Shopify) | $156k | $150k | $310k | topline goal - channel rows use their own attribution + overlap, so they do not sum to this |
| Implied ad spend | $10.6k (G) | ~$12k G + ~$1.5k Meta | ~$30k G + ~$4-5k Meta | scale as cashflow allows |
Targets are planning figures, not forecasts. The lever that makes July real is Meta starting from zero (most headroom) + the new site converting the traffic you already pay for.
04 · The efficiency levers - tracking + new site
What server-side tracking and the new site do to CPA and ROAS
May's verified paid baseline (pulled live from Google Ads, conversion lag settled): winning a paid order cost $31. That CPA is too high to scale hard against, and it is exactly what the two June builds attack: our 121 Insights server-side tracking going live on the store, and the new theme shipping. One fixes what Google can see, the other fixes what the traffic does.
$31
Cost per paid order (May)
$10,581 spend / 340 conversions
4.5%
Paid click → order rate
340 orders from 7,539 clicks
$1.40
Avg cost per click
stable; gains come from conversion, not cheaper clicks
$255
Revenue per paid order
Google-reported value per conversion
| Lever | What changes | CPA effect | Nature |
|---|
| 121 Insights server-side tracking | purchases lost to ad blockers, iOS privacy and consent drop-offs are captured server-side and fed back to Google (incl. enhanced conversions); typical recovery on a store this size is 10-15% of conversions | -9 to -13% | measured + signal |
| Smart Bidding on a full signal | Shopping/PMax stops optimising against a partial purchase feed; better data in, fewer wasted auctions out | -5 to -10% | real |
| New site conversion lift | search-first theme, real categories, fixed Clogger range: more of the ~7,500 paid clicks/month convert (4.5% → 5.0-5.4%) | -10 to -17% | real |
| Combined | at like-for-like spend (~$350-400/day) | $31 → $20-24 | ROAS 8.2× → 10.5-12.5× |
$20-24
June exit CPA to hit
Both levers land mid-June, so June stays blended; the last week of June is the test. Scale July only if exit-week CPA is at or under ~$25. That is the proof the levers landed and the bidder has learned.
5-6.5×
July ROAS band with the levers, after scale decay
Trebling spend erodes marginal efficiency: without the levers, ~$30k/month models at ~4-4.5× ($120-135k from Google, a miss). With them the band is 5-6.5× ($150-195k), so the plan's $150k at 5× becomes the floor of the band, not the stretch.
Planning estimates, not promises: the capture-recovery band is the typical server-side gain on ecommerce at this scale, and the bidding + site bands are deliberately conservative. The daily tracker below shows from week one whether reality is inside the band.
05 · Agreed 10 June - review meeting outcomes
Where June stands, and what we agreed this morning
June opened soft: budget had been cut to $100-150/day since late May, the long weekend cost ~4 trading days, and only $1,396 of Google spend went out in the first 9 days. Monday-Tuesday bounced straight back (~$12.1k gross) once trading normalised. The numbers below are live from Shopify and Google Ads as of this morning.
$26.7k
June month to date (gross)
101 orders · $2.8k/day vs the $5k line
$1,396
Google spend month to date
vs just under $4k by this point in May
$5.9k
Required daily pace from today
$123.3k to go over the remaining 21 days
| What we agreed | Detail | Owner |
|---|
| Ramp Google to ~$500/day | step up $50-100/day from the current $150 (protects Smart Bidding learning), full rate by ~Friday; budget spread to the winners: the all-products campaign + the Clogger focus-brand campaign; Friday weekly reviews | Steven |
| End the heavy discount codes | the 30-50% codes stop: they were going to existing customers, and a 25% code on a $298 order gives away ~$75 where a brand-new customer costs $31 to acquire; the free-gift promo stays, targeted clearance/trade only from here | Rhys |
| Launch bundle this week | new theme + 121 Insights server-side tracking + Meta retargeting go live together (target Friday); Meta starts at $50/day for the first 7 days inside the existing budget, then a day-7 review and step up on results | Adam |
| Catalogue concentrated | ~3,000 SKUs trimmed to ~1,500 via weekly data-driven cuts (high spend with low clicks or no sales, poor margin, unreliable supply); nothing that converts was cut; archived in Shopify; concentrates feed + budget on provable winners | Rhys + Steven |
| Google monthly invoicing | applying to move the ad account to postpaid invoicing (pay ~30 days after month end): the single biggest cashflow unlock, it decouples scaling ad spend from daily card payments | Steven |
Reframed goal: with a third of June already gone, the cleaner target is the next rolling 30 days: $150k+, stretch $200k if the ramp and the launch levers land. Revenue pace matters twice over here: 25% of daily sales services the Shopify Capital facility, so holding $5k/day also brings the next funding round forward by roughly three weeks.
06 · Manage to the number
Daily revenue tracker
Run the month against a daily line, not a month-end hope. June pace $5,000/day; July pace $10,000/day. EDM/campaign days should spike well above the line (24 May proved $12.8k is possible).
$5,000 /day
June pace to $150k
Catch-up pace from 10 June: ~$5.9k/day ($26.7k banked, $123.3k to go). Behind by Friday each week → trigger an EDM or push Google budget. Ahead → bank margin.
$10,000 /day
July pace to $310k
Needs Meta live + Google scaled + flows mature before 1 July, or the line is unreachable.
I'll wire a live target-vs-actual tracker (per channel, updating daily from Shopify + the ad platforms) so this is monitored, not guessed.
07 · Action briefs
Who does what
Steven · Google Ads
Restore, concentrate, then scale
- June (agreed 10/06): ramp $150 → ~$500/day in $50-100 daily steps, full rate by ~Friday; budget stays in Shopping/PMax (all-products + Clogger focus brands), none in Search (0 revenue)
- July: scale to ~$700-1,000/day while ROAS holds ≥4×; widen PMax asset groups by category
- Friday weekly review with Rhys: ROAS + spend against the daily tracker, plus the week's catalogue trims
Kate · Email / Klaviyo
Flows over discounts
- Stand up + verify welcome, abandoned-cart, browse-abandon and post-purchase flows
- Shift campaigns from free-gift/discount EDMs to value: best-sellers, restock, X-Line, trade/bulk
- Fix UTM tagging on every email link (recovers the ~$28k "Unassigned" bucket, 18% of sales)
- Target $28k June → $48k July at near-zero cost
Meta · NEW channel, retargeting only (Adam)
Warm retargeting, not cold prospecting
- Confirm pixel + CAPI firing on the new site; build site-visitor, abandoned-cart and email/customer audiences
- Launches with the new site (this week): $50/day for the first 7 days inside the existing budget, retargeting the ~24k monthly visitors + cart abandoners; day-7 review, then step up on results toward ~$4-5k/mo
- Target ~$20k in July from retargeting alone; only open cold prospecting later if retargeting proves out
Foundations (Adam)
Ship the site, fix the measurement
- Launch the new theme this week, target Friday (search-first, fixed Clogger range, real categories), with tracking + Meta retargeting in the same go-live; carry the free-gift promo snippet over to the new theme before launch
- Heavy discount codes agreed gone (10/06); keep the free-gift promo + targeted clearance/trade only
- FIX TRACKING: purchase events on the live GA4 property + UTMs, or July scaling is blind
08 · Risks to manage
Measurement is partly broken
The new GA4 property (rgeaus.com.au) tracks traffic but $0 revenue. 18% of sales ($28k) are "Unassigned". Fix purchase tracking + UTMs before scaling spend.
Cashflow ↔ ad spend
The budget cut was cashflow-driven; discounts were the crutch. In motion (10/06): Google monthly invoicing application (pay ~30 days after month end) + a staged ramp so spend follows revenue. 25% of daily sales services Shopify Capital, so pace also brings the next funding round forward.
2× in one month is aggressive
With Meta limited to retargeting, $310k leans harder on Google scaling + the new-site conversion lift + a July promo. Cold prospecting is the held-back reserve lever if the number needs more.
Confidential · Growth Strategy